The year 2013 will most like have a normal Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole i.e. 96 to 104% of Long Average. during June to September. This was announced by the Union Minister of Earth Sciences & Science and Technology Shri S.Jaipal Raddy at a Press conference here in new Dellhi today.
Shri Reddy said quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 98% of the Long Period Average with a model error of _+ 5%.
The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
Also, the probabilityfor normal rainfall is 46%, as against the climatological value of 33%.
The Minister said India Meteorological Department (IMD) will issue the update forecast in June 2013 as a part of the second stage forecast. Aong with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India.
He said over most part of our country, 70-90% of the annual rain fall is received during the southwest monsoon (June-September). Also, this rain fall is positively related to crop production in the country which has significant impact on the economy of the country.
ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for rainfall during the south-west monsoon season. Operational models are critically reviewed regularly and further improved through in-house research activities. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June – September) rainfall over the country as a whole are issued in two stages. The first long range forecast for the all India monsoon rainfall is issued in April and the forecast update is issued in June.
From 2007 onwards, ESSO-IMD has been using the following statistical models for preparing quantitative and probabilistic forecasts of the south-west monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole:
a) A 5- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to March, for the first forecast in April.
b) A 6- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to May for the forecast update in June.
c) The first stage forecast for the 2013 South-west monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is presented here.
Operational Statistical Forecast System
In the ESSO-IMD’s Ensemble Statistical Forecasting system for the April forecast, the following 5 predictors are used. The model forecast error of the April forecasting system is ±5%.
Shri Reddy said quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 98% of the Long Period Average with a model error of _+ 5%.
The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
Also, the probabilityfor normal rainfall is 46%, as against the climatological value of 33%.
The Minister said India Meteorological Department (IMD) will issue the update forecast in June 2013 as a part of the second stage forecast. Aong with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India.
He said over most part of our country, 70-90% of the annual rain fall is received during the southwest monsoon (June-September). Also, this rain fall is positively related to crop production in the country which has significant impact on the economy of the country.
ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for rainfall during the south-west monsoon season. Operational models are critically reviewed regularly and further improved through in-house research activities. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June – September) rainfall over the country as a whole are issued in two stages. The first long range forecast for the all India monsoon rainfall is issued in April and the forecast update is issued in June.
From 2007 onwards, ESSO-IMD has been using the following statistical models for preparing quantitative and probabilistic forecasts of the south-west monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole:
a) A 5- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to March, for the first forecast in April.
b) A 6- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to May for the forecast update in June.
c) The first stage forecast for the 2013 South-west monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is presented here.
Operational Statistical Forecast System
In the ESSO-IMD’s Ensemble Statistical Forecasting system for the April forecast, the following 5 predictors are used. The model forecast error of the April forecasting system is ±5%.
|
S.No
|
Predictor
|
Period
|
|
1
|
North Atlantic
Sea Surface Temperature
|
December + January
|
|
2
|
Equatorial South
Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature
|
February + March
|
|
3
|
East Asia Mean
Sea Level Pressure
|
February + March
|
|
4
|
NW Europe
Land Surface Air
Temperature
|
January
|
|
5
|
Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume
|
February + March
|
The
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